WTF does this have to do with Tuke and Corker hiking together?
But as a Padgett supporter, I'd like to thank Braisted for pointing out the kind of insider guy Bob Tuke is and the kind of folks he hangs out with.
Braisted is right -- to a point -- about Memphis. And Padgett has a fierce ground game going on down there. But Braisted seems to ignore all the non-metro counties that Padgett has worked (he went to ALL of them) and Tuke hasn't. Those hometown Democrats know how to turn out the vote, and they remember who had time for them and who didn't.
That's where Hillary Clinton won Tennessee in January (to my dismay). She didn't carry any of the metro counties but one -- Knox. Whoever was working Knox County for her must've known what they were doing.
The guy's name was... um, Mike Padgett.
It could go either way on Thursday. I just hope whoever wins can take Lamar! down.
But I predict they'll be playing the blues Thursday night in Memphis, and in Knoxville, it'll sound like the Vols just beat Florida.
Ok, I have it out of my system now.
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Braisted seems to ignore all the non-metro counties that Padgett has worked (he went to ALL of them) and Tuke hasn't.
Ignore them? No, I'm simply being realistic. Shelby county has the only competitive Democratic congressional primary. They are the largest traditional democratic base, and in a low turnout election, they could comprise a significant portion of the overall state turnout.
Also, Hillary Clinton had universal name recognition...something Padgett doesn't have in the rural counties. Should he manage to win the election and lose Shelby, I'll be happy to concede I was wrong...but I don't think the two elections are comparable, as Hillary didn't win those rural counties in Tennessee by sampling the local fare at the town diner.
I understand that Memphis is key and I'm not saying he can win without it, but based on the time Padgett's spent there and the support he has there, I think he CAN win it.
I will concede to you on the Hillary thing. Point well made.
As for you being realistic... jury's still out.
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